Africa's future lies in China. For better or worse.
I've been thinking a lot lately about how much Western aid has been holding Africa back in some ways. There are easy examples, like the free second hand clothes that America ships here by the boatload, effectively preventing any large-scale domestic textile industry from becoming established. Remember the key role that textiles and cotton played in the development of England, the U.S., South Africa, and Australia, to name a few obvious examples. But it's not just this sort of idiotic giving that hurts Africa. It's also the way we do our aid. (See my earlier post,
The Last Condom Factory in Africa.)
I can't think of a single instance where development (in any way you want to measure it: per capita GDP, infant or maternal mortality, life expectancy, literacy/education, access to potable water, etc) has been driven by anything other than private sector growth. State-lead development was a categorical failure in Latin America (which Latin American socialists like to forget), and the development model of the East Asian "miracle" countries makes the Washington consensus look populist. In short, the state seems to be incapable of bringing about meaningful gains for its people, short of fostering the growth of independent (not state-owned) employers.
The problem is that Western aid by and large flows to the governments, which is all but useless. It is throwing money down a rat hole, as foreign aid has been disparaged by isolationist American politicians des temps en temps.
Instead, we can do huge amounts of good if we support African industries. This just means buying African-produced goods, and encouraging direct investment in African industries. Foreign direct investment was, after all, the engine that drove the East African economic boom. (Of course, we do need to learn a bit more caution from the fiscal crises of the late 1990s which wiped out some of the gains those countries had experienced.)
So, back to China. China is getting involved in Africa in no small way. Their model is to trade with Africa on its own terms. As Moeletsi Mbeki, a South African businessman and political analyst, is quoted as saying in the NY Times
today: “They are not the first big foreign power to come to Africa, but they may be the first not to act as though they are some kind of patron or teacher or conqueror. In that sense, there is a meeting of the minds.”
That sounds wonderful. That sounds like it might be exactly what Africa needs in order to develop its industries, in order to generate more jobs, to mop up the excess labor in which African cities are awash, to raise real wages, and to raise the quality of life and increase the opportunities that Africans will have in the 21st century.
At the same, though, China is not trying to go directly to African businessmen, but is instead working closely with their governments. An upcoming conference on China-Africa trade relations will host 38 African heads of state. No doubt Sudan, Angola, and Zimbabwe will all be there; China works closely with all those governments, eschewing concerns that they commit gross human rights violations. China will use aid, mostly in the form of debt forgiveness and huge loans, as leverage to encourage cooperation from dubious African leaders. Let me not say dubious. Let me say atrocious. These are the sorts of deals that inspire national leaders to do whatever necessary to extend their rule indefinitely: in exchange for trade concessions, they will get access to huge amounts of cash ripe for embezzling. Cash flows like this directly to governments are exactly what Western countries have been doing wrong, but are on the verge of rectifying (see the
Millennium Challenge Accounts).
The result may well be more of the same (or worse) for Africa: leaders selling raw materials to China at deflated prices in exchange for unrestricted loans that need never be repaid. African countries will be forced to import the finished items back from China. Africa has long exported raw materials and imported finished products, so deals with China may not result in anything but undermining all Western efforts to withdraw support for inept and corrupt governments. And whatever you think about promoting Western values abroad, there is no reason to provide support to kleptocrats. Or, as my girlfriend loves to say, feeding people is a Western value. (Disclaimer: this is not to say that feeding people is not an African value, or an Eastern value, or any other country's value. Don't read that into this.)
We'll find out soon what increased ties with China will mean, because we have neither the power nor the right to stop them. African development will probably be more affected by its interactions with China's economy than with the West's over the next fifty years. It's anyone's guess exactly what that will mean (in no small part because it's anyone's guess what China will look like in 50 years). But for better or for worse, Africa's future lies in China.